MLB World Series Betting - New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The New York Yankees (113-62 SU, 97-77 RL, 81-84-9 O/U) are nearing their intended destination as 2009 MLB World Series champions. The Philadelphia Phillies (101-74 SU, 89-83 RL, 79-85-8 O/U) will try to stave off elimination for at least one more game when they take the field for Game 5 tonight at Citizens Bank Park tonight at 8:00 PM ET.
The Yankees took a commanding 3-1 series lead by handing Philadelphia a convincing 7-4 defeat in Game 4 as Johnny Damon and Alex Rodriguez stunned the Phillies in the ninth inning with a double-steal by Damon and a run-scoring double by Rodriguez.
Tonight, the Yankees will hand the ball to right-hander A.J. Burnett (14-9, 3.99 ERA) while the Phillies counter with overpowering left-hander Cliff Lee (2-0, 0.37 ERA).
Here is a look at tonight's key trends and MLB Odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert MLB Free Picks.
Yankees are 7- 0 in their last 7 interleague road games.
Yankees are 8- 1 in their last 9 interleague games.
Yankees are 6- 1 in Burnett's last 7 starts.
Phillies are 4- 0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Phillies are 11- 1 in their last 12 playoff games as a favorite.
Phillies are 4- 0 in Lees last 4 starts.
Phillies are 5- 0 in Lees last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Yankees are 4- 0 in the last 4 meetings in Philadelphia.
Under is 8- 3 in the last 11 meetings.
MLB Odds
New York Yankees +1 1/2 -160
A.J. Burnett -R -135
Philadelphia Phillies -1 1/2 +140
Cliff Lee -L -155
Over 8 1/2 Ev
Under 8 1/2 -120
The Starters: A.J. Burnett has gone 1-0 over his last three starts with a 4.19 ERA while Cliff Lee has gone 2-0 with a microscopic 0.37 ERA over his last three starts.
Analysis: I genuinely believe the Philadelphia Phillies are 'toast' in this series (that's right, they're done) but I think Philadelphia has one more win in them and will get bit tonight behind outstanding left-handed staff ace Cliff Lee who has already dominated the Yankees once in this series while leading Philadelphia to a convincing 6-1 win on Game 1.
While tonight's starter for New York was also dominant in his only series start so far, leading New York to a 3-1 win in Game 2 by allowing just one earned run in seven solid innings, I like the Phils to get to Burnett tonight and put up just enough runs on the board to win this contest.
The Yankees however, likely won't go away quietly as they've gone a blistering 7- 0 in their last seven interleague road games, 8- 1 in their last nine interleague games and a stellar 6- 1 in Burnett's last seven starts.
Nevertheless, I'm taking the Phillies to win this ballgame on the strength of the nearly unhittable Cliff Lee.
Philadelphia has gone a perfect 4- 0 in their last four games as a favorite, 11- 1 in their last 12 playoff games as a favorite and an unblemished 4- 0 in Lee's last four starts, not to mention an equally impressive 5- 0 in Lee's last five starts versus a team with a winning record .
While the Yankees have gone 4- 0 in the last four meetings in Philadelphia, I say Lee snaps that streak tonight with an emphatic win while the Under (8- 3 in the last 11 meetings) plays out for avid BetUS MLB online betting enthusiasts.
Take the Phillies and the Under in Game 5 tonight.
MLB Free Picks: Philadelphia -1 1/2 Runs/Under 8 1/2 Total Runs.
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MLB World Series Betting Odds
The 105th World Series will get underway tonight as two teams with plenty of history battle it out for the right to be called MLB Champions.
The defending World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies take on the New York Yankees who make it back to the World Series for the first time since 2003 and a first for manager Joe Girardi.
The New York Yankees are heavily favored to win the World Series at both Las Vegas sportsbooks as well as online gambling betting sites.
We'll take a look at some of the World Series betting odds from offshore betting sites.
The oddsmakers have the Yankees behind CC Sabathia as a -173 favorite. The underdog is available at +158. On the run line bettors can grab the Yankees at -1.5 +115 or Phillies +1.5 -135 behind Cliff Lee. The betting total is set at 7.5 runs.
Lots of proposition betting. You can bet on what Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and other players will do in their first at-bat. As an example, sports fans can wager that Mark Teixeira will hit a home run on his first bat for 19/2 betting odds.
Matchup betting is also a lot of fun when it comes to betting on the World Series. Robinson Cano Vs. Raul Ibanez on who will have more hits, RBI and runs scored for even money.
Odds on who will win the World Series MVP award. Some notable players are Alex Rodriguez at 7/2 odds. The captain Derek Jeter along with the opening day starter CC Sabathia are 6/1 odds. For Philadelphia, Ryan Howard is 21/4 to take home the award while Cole Hammels is 12/1. A few longshots include Andy Pettitte at 22/1 and Pedro Martinez at 25/1.
The betting odds on the series are up with New York -190 and Philadelphia +165.
(c) 2000 - 2009 Cappersmall.com. All rights reserved.
ALCS: Yankees Game 4 betting odds
The Yankees will take Game 4 against the betting odds on Tuesday. The Yankees had lost game 3, in another dramatic finish, and will send Sabathia to the hill for game 4. The betting line and odds show the Yankees as a -135 favorite, with the total being set at 8.5 runs.
Scott Kazmir will try to master this Yankees line-up once again, a team he has had much success against at home. In his previous 8 home starts against the Yankees, Kazmir has allowed 9 ER's. In his 3 starts against the Yankees in 2009, he allowed 7 ER's in those games combined. Sabathia has allowed only 2 ER's this postseason in his 2 starts. He has allowed 12 ER's in his last 5 starts vs. LA.
Regardless of how these teams tend to play each other the betting odds favor the Yankees and that is what I would suggest going with as the Play of the Day. In game 4 in the ALCS since 1999, the team leading the series is 8-2 against the betting odds. The Angels have found life winning game 3, but will have that life ended on Tuesday night. Between the starters and relief there should be an under seen in this contest. Sabathia has been too good in the clutch and Kazmir will not get his team in a hole. Both of these teams have struggled to score runs in the postseason against the MLB betting line. The last 6 of 7 meetings between these teams have gone under. The Yankees have gone under in every postseason game this season, while LA has gone under in 5 of their 6 playoff games. The Yankees have scored 4 runs in all 3 against LA, while they averaged a 5-2 margin in their opening series.
Expert selections would have to be on the Yankees as small road favorites and the under 8.5 runs in game 4 of the ALCS.
(c) TheOnlinewire.com, 2004-2008.
Cardinals in betting odds desperation mode in Game 3
The St. Louis cardinals have lost 2 straight games against the Dodgers and betting odds in this opening round. They are now in desperation mode heading home down 0-2 in the best of 5 series. One of these teams will be eliminated, and for now, it looks like as dominant as the Cards were, they will be gone soon.
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Not many teams have come back from an 0-2 deficit in round 1 of the MLB playoffs. The Cardinals have gone 11-1 in games 1 and 2 of their opening round playoff series over the last 6 playoff appearances. That has completely changed. Their ace starters, Carpenter, and Wainwright, both Cy Young candidates, choked down the stretch. Carpenter did not have his best stuff, while Wainwright made a couple of bad pitches and gave up a lead. A base running error cost the Cards a run late in the game, while Holliday could have put in away but couldn't find the fly ball that bounced off of him and onto the ground. Some tough luck, but it is what separates winners from losers.
Joel Pineiro will get the call in game 3, at home as a -155 betting odds favorite, facing Vincente Padilla, who I can not say enough good things about. I love the fact that Torre is giving Padilla the nod here. I mean, Billingsley has not been as good as he previously has been, and Torre decided to keep him out of the rotation, even though he has had decent numbers vs. St. Louis. It is all about quality, and that is something Padilla brings to the playoff table. As dogs here, the Dodgers make for the best play on Saturday against the MLB betting odds. Padilla has gotten the job done as a Dodger. He has never faced the Cardinals, but his numbers are worthy.
Padilla comes in 4-0 overall against the betting odds, and posts a 3-0 record on the road. His ERA for the year as a Dodger showed a 3.20 and an even 3.00 on the road. He is allowing 2 ER's over 5+ inning son the season but those numbers dip lower on the road. Padilla allowed only 8 ER's in his 24 innings on the road this year as a member of the Dodgers staff. LA is 6-1 against the betting odds in his starts, and they are 4-0 on the road. This LA team is in the groove, something that can't be said for the Cards.
Pineiro allowed just 1 ER this season at home vs. LA, but allowed 4 ER's in last year's home meeting with them. The Cards are 1-5 in his last starts against the MLB betting odds and this will continue Saturday. The Cards have dropped 4 of their last 6 to LA, and with struggling bats this will not change. LA is hot after losing 5 straight, they have won 4 straight, sealing the division win, and now leading 2-0 in a very important series. The Cards have lost 5 in a row, and 8 of their last 9 games against the MLB betting odds. St. Louis has been outscored 51-28 in those 8 recent losses, scoring an average of not even 4 runs per game. They were swept at home in their final series and will lose at home laying money on the MLB betting odds Saturday. Play the Dodgers to get revenge on a prior playoff series loss to St. Louis some years ago, and sweep this one.
(c) TheOnlinewire.com, 2004-2008.
COL-PHI Game 1
Philadelphia, PA - All those big boppers and two hitter-friendly ballparks sure make the Phillies-Rockies series look like a slugfest.
Not so fast.
When Colorado swept Philadelphia in the 2007 NL division series, the teams combined for only 24 runs in three games. Now, each club boasts even stronger pitching.
Oddsmakers from online sportsbook Sports Interaction have made the Phillies -125 moneyline favorites for Wednesday's game against the Rockies. Current MLB Public Betting Information shows that 67% of more than 6,334 bets for this game have been placed on the Phillies -125
The Phillies have two former Cy Young Award winners and last year's World Series and NLCS MVP on their staff. The Rockies were the only team in the majors to have all five starters reach double-digit wins.
``I look at our starting pitching as very good,'' Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said. ``I think it's as good as any team in the National League, and I think that our starting pitching will play up big in this series.''
The defending World Series champions are sending reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee (14-13, 3.22 ERA with Indians and Phillies) to the mound for Game 1 on Wednesday. Ubaldo Jimenez (15-12, 3.47) gets the start for Colorado.
Both pitchers are quite aware the ball travels well at Citizens Bank Park, and they're facing plenty of hitters who can drive them out. Neither Lee nor Jimenez will be intimidated.
``I think it's pretty well noted that it's a hitter's ballpark,'' Lee said. ``It still doesn't mean you can't throw right-handers in and you can't come in on lefties because you're scared they're going to hit a home run. Obviously, you get in certain situations where you might not want to come in on a guy. But for the most part, I'm going to pitch the way I pitch, regardless.''
Pitching at Coors Field prepares Jimenez for just about anything, so he shouldn't have trouble blocking it out of his mind.
``The first thing is I'm not going to be thinking about the park because it's a hitter's park, anybody can hit them out,'' Jimenez said. ``The only thing I can do is try to look at my fastball and try to throw everything down so they can hit groundballs.''
Lee has faced the Rockies only once in his career, beating them 3-1 on Aug. 6. He allowed one run and six hits, striking out nine in seven innings.
Jimenez held the Phillies to one run in 6 1-3 innings in the clincher of the '07 series, but is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA in two regular-season starts against them.
``Anybody in that lineup can hurt you,'' Jimenez said. ``It's a tough lineup, a really tough lineup. It's a big challenge. But there's nothing you can do. The only thing, I'm going to go out there and just pitch my game, try to win.''
Cole Hamels, who was dominant during Philadelphia's postseason run last October, faces Aaron Cook in Game 2. Jason Hammel got the nod over All-Star Jason Marquis to pitch Game 3 for Colorado while the Phillies haven't decided. They can use three-time Cy Young Award winner Pedro Martinez, Joe Blanton or J.A. Happ.
The Rockies have the bullpen edge because closer Huston Street was 35 for 37 in save chances. Brad Lidge had 11 blown saves for the Phillies after going 48 for 48 last year. Manuel hasn't committed to using Lidge or Ryan Madson or even Blanton or Happ in the closer's role.
``I'll answer that when we get there,'' he said. ``Whoever you see walking out there.''
While they certainly have quality pitchers who are capable of shutting good lineups down, both teams are mostly known for their hitting. And they can hit anywhere in any size parks.
The Phillies led the NL with 820 runs and 224 homers. The Rockies were second in both categories with 804 runs and 190 homers. By the way, both teams had middle-of-the-pack staff ERAs. Philadelphia was sixth at 4.16 and Colorado was eighth at 4.22.
All-Stars Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez and Shane Victorino lead the Phillies' lineup, which also includes 2007 NL MVP Jimmy Rollins.
Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, Brad Hawpe and Clint Barmes anchor a balanced Colorado attack.
``Every team that's in the playoffs right now, every lineup is full of unbelievable hitters,'' Lee said. ``There's not much room for error with these types of lineups and you've got to work ahead and you've got to stay out of the heart of the plate.''
The Phillies and wild card-winning Rockies took different paths to get here. Philadelphia (93-69) cruised to its third straight NL East title, leading the division since May 30.
Colorado rebounded from an awful start and finished a franchise-best 92-70, including 74-42 after Jim Tracy replaced Clint Hurdle as manager on May 29.
In '07, the Rockies came in riding the momentum from a 14-1 run. The Phillies were just thrilled to make it after overcoming a seven-game deficit with 17 remaining and surpassing the New York Mets on the final day of the regular season.
``They basically walked right through us,'' Victorino said. ``They were playing so well. There was not a team in the National League that could stop them.''
Philadelphia is trying to be the first NL to repeat since the Cincinnati Reds won consecutive World Series in 1975-96.
``The taste is still in our mouths and we want to taste it again,'' Madson said.
(c) 1999-2009 TheSpread.com Inc.
MIL-COL Preview
Colorado - The Colorado Rockies haven't taken advantage of all their opportunities to shore up their bid for the NL wild card. Jason Marquis has been part of the problem.
Marquis will try to snap out of his recent funk and help the Rockies move closer to a playoff return Tuesday night when they open a three-game set against the Milwaukee Brewers at Coors Field.
Oddsmakers from online sportsbook Sports Interaction have made the Rockies -170 moneyline favorites for Tuesday's game against the Brewers. Current MLB Public Betting Information shows that 84% of more than 350 bets for this game have been placed on the Rockies -170.
Colorado (88-68) didn't appear to be a factor in the NL after holding a 20-32 mark on June 3. However, the club rebounded in a big way, winning 62 of its next 90 to move atop the wild-card chase.
The Rockies have cooled of late, dropping eight of 13 before beating St. Louis 4-3 on Sunday. With one week remaining in the regular season, they're trying to hold off surging Atlanta.
Marquis (15-12, 3.98 ERA) has been part of Colorado's recent struggles, going 1-4 with a 6.49 ERA in his last six starts. He's 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA over his last three outings, the first time the Rockies have lost three straight games started by the veteran right-hander.
"I've done a poor job the last few times out," Marquis told the Rockies' official Web site. "You can't control the outcome of what the hitters do, but you can control your emotions and how you handle yourself on the mound. I'm ready to move forward and do what I was doing the first few months."
Despite his recent slump, Marquis has matched his career high in wins, set with St. Louis in 2004. Reaching a new mark could be tough against a Milwaukee team he struggled with last season. He was 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in three games - two starts - against the Brewers in 2008.
Marquis feels Sunday's bullpen session helped him address some recent mechanical problems.
"Not only in the bullpen session, but just playing catch, I feel I'm where I was two or three months ago," he said. "I'm cleaning up my downhill angle.
"When you get into a game, there's a lot more adrenaline going on, so you've got to be able to slow everything down and incorporate it. I'm excited about getting the ball on Tuesday."
The Rockies have won 10 of their last 13 meetings with the Brewers (77-79), including a three-game road sweep from June 9-11 - the clubs' only previous matchups this season. Colorado's won six of seven against Milwaukee at Coors Field.
While some players relish playing the role of the spoiler, Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder said he wouldn't take any additional pleasure from beating a team in the playoff hunt.
"I don't care about messing up somebody's dreams or anything like that," Fielder told the team's official Web site. "I just want to win for us. You play to win, so you might as well win. As far as trying to mess someone else's goals up, I don't get into that."
Milwaukee split a four-game series against NL East-leading Philadelphia over the weekend. Its rally in Sunday's finale fell short as Mike Cameron struck out with Fielder on third to end a 6-5 loss.
Chris Narveson (2-0, 3.82) will take the ball Tuesday for his fourth start since being moved into the Milwaukee rotation.
The left-hander, who has never faced Colorado, is making a strong case for a starting job next season. He's 1-0 with a 2.63 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 13 2-3 innings in three starts - all Brewers wins.
Narveson was outstanding Wednesday, allowing one run and striking out a career-high 10 in 5 2-3 innings to beat Chicago 3-2.
(c) 1999-2009 TheSpread.com Inc.
Orioles at Jays
Toronto, Ontario - Toronto's recent struggles within the AL East continued as the team was swept by a division rival over the weekend.
If recent history is any indication, the Blue Jays have a good chance of bouncing back with the Baltimore Orioles coming to town.
The Blue Jays look to continue their home dominance of the Orioles as the clubs open a three-game series Monday night at Rogers Centre.
Toronto (66-83) finished a nine-game road trip with four straight losses against AL East teams, including three in a row against Tampa Bay over the weekend. The Rays became the first team to beat Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay four times in a season with a 3-1 victory Sunday.
That defeat dropped Toronto to 6-18 within the division since it took two of three against Baltimore from Aug. 7-9 - its last series win against an AL East opponent.
Oddsmakers from online sportsbook BetOnline have made the Blue Jays -130 moneyline favorites for Monday's game against the Orioles. Current MLB Public Betting Information shows that 61% of more than 133 bets for this game have been placed on the Blue Jays -130.
The Blue Jays have to like their chances against the last-place Orioles (60-89), losers of 10 of 12 at Rogers Centre since their last series win there from June 6-8, 2008. Baltimore is 1-5 in Toronto this season and 6-23 overall on the road against AL East teams.
The Orioles have lost their last four games, all at home against division rivals. They were outscored 23-9 in three straight losses to Boston over the weekend, finishing 2-16 in the season series.
"If you're going to compete with a team of that caliber, you've got to pitch up to their level and you've got to hit up to their level," outfielder Luke Scott said after a 9-3 loss in Sunday's finale.
"We've gotten our hits and we've scored runs, but you've got to match them on the mound. That's the first place you've got to start."
The Blue Jays aren't of the same caliber as the Red Sox, but the Orioles would still love to get a strong showing from Chris Tillman (2-3, 4.50 ERA) on Monday.
The rookie right-hander delivered one of his best games Wednesday, holding Tampa Bay to one run and five hits in a season high-tying 6 2-3 innings. He didn't get the decision in Baltimore's 4-2 victory.
Tillman also lasted 6 2-3 innings in his first start against Toronto on Aug. 8. He gave up two runs and four hits in the Orioles' 3-2, 10-inning defeat on the road.
The Blue Jays will counter with David Purcey (0-2, 6.32). The left-hander made a bid for his first win of the year last Monday, holding Detroit to two runs and five hits over 5 2-3 innings. But the Toronto bullpen struggled late, and the Blue Jays fell 6-5 in 10 innings.
Purcey, competing for a spot in the 2010 rotation, can help his cause if he can more effectively control his pitches. He's issued 22 walks in 31 1-3 innings.
"All our kids have got little control problems," manager Cito Gaston told the Blue Jays' official Web site. "It's hard to pitch up here pitching behind all the time, especially with good teams. They'll make you pay."
Purcey had just one walk but gave up six runs in five innings in his only previous outing against Baltimore last September 17.
(c) 1999-2009 TheSpread.com Inc.
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